Soriano Smiles, Bowden Beguiles

I couldn't think of a better homonym to 'smile', just go with it.

The Player

Soriano's offense speaks for itself. When he came to the Nationals in March, he was widely known as a free-swinger. Whether it was working with Page or simply his desire to maximize his contract in his chance at free agency, he has settled down at the plate [Note 1] and surprised everyone with his home run prowess at supposedly pitcher-friendly RFK Stadium.

Soriano's defense has been steadily improving, and one of his teammates was recently quoted as saying that the only balls that still give him trouble are line drives hit directly to him. He has recently been tearing up the base paths with steals of second and third base, although he has been caught a few times as recently.

The Front Office

While the trade rumors are worth what you paid for them, some find it interesting to follow them. The majority of ESPN and similar jockjaws hope to raise the their stature by promulgating what they think might happen and can be disregarded outright. XM175 interviews the actual movers and shakers and those beat writers who cover them, so the hints and tips gleaned there can be more informative. In any case, this is the weekend immediately prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, so an avalanche of activity is starting. After July 31 up until August 31, players can still be traded, but they must pass through the waiver wire, during which time they could be claimed by other teams.

The Nationals' self-aggrandizing GM Jim Bowden loves being the center of media attention and fancies himself the master trade-maker, so he is likely milking this hoopla over Soriano for all it's worth, seeing as how he is unlikely to come close to anything like this for some time while the team rebuilds. He has been quoted recently as claiming that his phone is "burning up" with all the offers he is receiving for Soriano.

The truth is probably shaded quite a bit from that, although these big deals are said to require a great deal of grunt work, calling many different parties to the trade and getting all the ducks in a row. So while his phone might be close to burning up, it's more likely that he is communicating with his scouts and other Nats operatives in order to determine which prospects and young players to ask for in exchange for Soriano.

The Team

The fact remains that the Nationals are most definitely sellers. They are in a race to the bottom, perhaps in an effort to secure the #1 draft pick. After last night's shelling in Dodger Stadium, their need for pitching, pitching, pitching is acutely shown.

The trade of Carlos Lee from the Milwaukee Brewers to the Texas Rangers takes him off the supply of sluggers, raising Soriano's demand, and thus his price.

The Rumors

Latest rumors are that Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins are "aggressively" pursuing Soriano. Also, since Texas has improved its offensive power through the acquisition of Lee, the Angels and Athletics must now pull the trigger on a trade in order to keep up in the hotly contested AL West race.

American League West 2006.07.29 noon:

Team	Won	Lost	Win %	GB
Angels	53	49	.520	0
Athletics	53	50	.515	0.5
Rangers	51	52	.495	2.5
Mariners	49	53	.480	4.0

Now, assuming that the additional offensive production of Carlos Lee adds a conservative 3-5 games to the Rangers' record and all other things being equal (his RV not available to me), that makes the AL West race very interesting indeed. Bill Stoneman is said to be very conservative with the Angels' purse strings and Billy Beane is well known for his Moneyball approach to extracting maximum value from his acquisitions. Still, with the AL West up for grabs they will likely be sniffing around Soriano if not actively pursuing him, if only to drive up his price for competing AL West teams.

AL Central

American League Central 2006.07.29 noon:

Team	Won	Lost	Win %	GB
Tigers	69	33	.676	0
White Sox	60	41	.594	8.5
Twins	59	42	.584	9.5
Indians	45	56	.446	23.5
Royals	36	66	.353	33.0

Detroit has the best record on the planet. With Minnesota 9-1/2 games back it's not clear to see that the addition of Soriano would make the difference for them in a wildcard race among the Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox and possibly Athletics. But what do I know?

Who knows what negotiations happen behind the scenes? One thing's for certain, we will know by Tuesday. Til Tuesday!


Note 1 - Capitol Punishment notes that Soriano has been showing signs of returning to flailing at the plate as he did for a time back in May. Exhibit A. Exhibit B.